Oscar Nominations: Full List, Should Win/Will Win, and Headscratchers

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The stars were out this morning, for the Motion Picture Academy of Arts and Science’s announcement of this year’s Oscar nominees. It’s the Super Bowl of fighting about movies! The big winner overall was Sinners, with 16 nominations total (a new record!), followed by One Battle After Another with 11. For once I have nothing snotty to say because they’re both great. The big loser overall, at least according to the early write-ups, was Wicked: For Good, with zero nominations. This was, apparently, a surprise, at least in light of Wicked’s ten nominations last year.

I sat through about an hour plus of Wicked, and when I still couldn’t tell what it was even supposed to be about I asked myself “Do I really need to do this?” and turned it off. I haven’t thought about it since and I feel great about it. Obviously I didn’t need to go back for a sequel. Maybe it’s great, I don’t know. Ariana Grande’s whole deal makes me feel confused and old.

Was that sufficiently snotty? Anyway, here are the nom nom noms.

[The Oscars will be hosted by Conan O'Brien on Sunday, March 15 at 7 p.m. ET/4 p.m. PT, airing on ABC and streaming on Hulu.]

Best Picture

Bugonia (my review)
F1 (my review)
Frankenstein (my review)
Hamnet (my review)
Marty Supreme (my review)
One Battle After Another (my review)
The Secret Agent
Sentimental Value (my review)
Sinners (my review)
Train Dreams (my review)

Should Win:

One Battle After Another. It’s the movie of the year and maybe the movie of the 21st century, as far as I’m concerned.

Will Win:

One Battle After Another. Oddschecker has it at -475 to win, which honestly seems a little low to me. Maybe Sinners (+650) is a dark horse?

Headscratchers:

Lol, F1? How? Car racing movies seem like a layup, and that one was mid at best. F1 wasn’t fit to carry Ford Vs Ferrari’s jock. Frankenstein is also pretty bad, but everyone loves Guillermo Del Toro, so it’s never too big a surprise seeing his movies get over-praised.

Performance by an actor in a leading role (aka Best Actor)

Timothée Chalamet, Marty Supreme
Leonardo DiCaprio, One Battle After Another
Ethan Hawke, Blue Moon
Michael B. Jordan, Sinners
Wagner Moura, The Secret Agent

Should Win:

Phew, this is a tough one. Chalamet was great, but somehow in a way that I didn’t find particularly surprising. I love DiCaprio, and part of me thinks he should win on the strength of mastering the Mexican whistle alone.

He’s also the emotional anchor of the year’s best film, which seems like a big deal. Ball don’t lie. Still, there were a couple times in there when it seemed like Leo should’ve been bringing real tears and wasn’t. And he already has an Oscar anyway. These performances are all great, but gun to my head, I think I say Wagner Moura. He’s been crushing it for years (I believe I called him as a future star in 2010 after I saw Elite Squad 2, nbd) and does once again in The Secret Agent. He does often make me ask the question “great actor or just incredibly handsome?”, but I’m not entirely sure those are two different things.

Will Win:

Oddschecker has Chalamet at -450 to win, and he has won all the lesser awards, so it seems like a strong bet. Sure, why not.

Headscratchers:

Ethan Hawke for Blue Moon, maybe? I don’t know, I still haven’t seen that one. Seems like Jesse P. Lemons should’ve had that slot for Bugonia, for proving that he can do “meth-addled Matt Damon” as well as he can “fat Matt Damon.”

Snubs:

I’m hearing Paul Mescal for Hamnet, which I don’t entirely disagree with in the sense of him being great, but I also don’t care about Hamnet that much so oh well. I’m sure he’ll be nominated again. Paul Mescal is the ideal kind of weird-hot for an actor.

Performance by an actress in a leading role (aka Best Actress)

Jessie Buckley, Hamnet
Rose Byrne, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You (my review)
Kate Hudson, Song Sung Blue (my review)
Renate Reinsve, Sentimental Value
Emma Stone, Bugonia

Should Win:

Another tough one. I would run into traffic for Jessie Buckley, whose praises I’ve been singing for years, but for me no one touches Rose Byrne this year. There are fewer than five actors alive who could’ve done what she did in If I Had Legs I’d Kick You.

Will Win:

The oddsmakers have Jessie Buckley as a massive -1600 favorite (that means you have to bet $1600 to win $100, for the non-gambling-knowers out there), and she seems to have won all the other ones. I have no reason to doubt the oddsmakers on this one. My heart still says Byrne, but awards season always undervalues comedy. Traditionally we assume that’s because comedy gets no respect (/Dangerfield) but could it also be that comedy is just more subjective? Discuss.

Headscratchers:

Kate Hudson. Not because she’s not great, in fact I was actually shocked by how wonderful a singer she is, but because Amanda Seyfried did the whole singing-and-dancing thing far more dramatically in The Testament of Ann Lee. Seyfried was amazing, but the movie was kind of a downer and I suspect not enough people saw it. Maybe they also thought, like I did, that Seyfried already had an Oscar. Turns out nope, only one nomination, for Mank. (Kate Hudson also has one nom, for Almost Famous).

Performance by an actor in a supporting role (aka Best Supporting Actor)

Benicio del Toro, One Battle After Another
Jacob Elordi, Frankenstein
Delroy Lindo, Sinners
Sean Penn, One Battle After Another
Stellan Skarsgård, Sentimental Value

Should Win:

Sean Penn is the one performance that absolutely jumped off the screen for me this year. The hair, the walk, him deadpanning lines like “wet and stinkies”… an absolute all-timer for me. My top two or three belly laughs at the theater this year were all Sean Penn in One Battle (one of them was watching his body being loaded into cremator, but I count that).

Will Win:

Oddschecker has Stellan Skarsgard at a modest -120. Penn and Del Toro splitting the OBAA vote has worked out for Skarsgard so far, and probably will gain, but I wouldn’t be entirely surprised if Penn won this time.

Headscratchers

I like Jacob Elordi, but are we serious with this?

Performance by an actress in a supporting role (aka Best Supporting Actress)

Elle Fanning, Sentimental Value
Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas, Sentimental Value
Amy Madigan, Weapons
Wunmi Mosaku, Sinners
Teyana Taylor, One Battle After Another

Should Win:

This one is a brutal choice between Amy Madigan and Teyana Taylor for me. Elle Fanning and Inga Binga Dinga were both great, but also not in the movie enough to justify nominations, in my mind. The movie itself was also not all that great. Wunmi Mosaku had even less screentime, though she did a lot with it. Tough category.

Will Win:

Oddsmakers say Teyana Taylor at -188, but this one feels like a total toss-up.

Best animated feature film

Arco
Elio (my review)
KPop Demon Hunters
Little Amélie or the Character of Rain
Zootopia 2

Should Win:

Uh… Zootopia? I don’t know, I’ve only seen two of these.

Will Win:

KPop Demon Hunters.

Cinematography

Frankenstein
Marty Supreme
One Battle After Another
Sinners
Train Dreams

Basically any of these could and should win. I don’t know that Marty Supreme’s cinematography was as good as some of the others (though it worked), and the fact that 90% of Train Dreams took place during golden hour seems like cheating. I thought Caught Stealing and The Left-Handed Girl deserved some love here, but there were some great looking movies this year. I’m shocked Hamnet didn’t make the list (though not disappointed).

Directing

Chloé Zhao, Hamnet
Josh Safdie, Marty Supreme
Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another
Joachim Trier, Sentimental Value
Ryan Coogler, Sinners

Should win/will win:

PTA. He’s at -1100 and I can’t argue with it. I wouldn’t be sad about Coogler or Safdie winning, just to give them credit for fantastic movies, but this is PTA’s year.

Best Documentary

The Alabama Solution
Come See Me in the Good Light
Cutting Through Rocks
Mr. Nobody Against Putin
The Perfect Neighbor

I didn’t see enough docs this year.

Best International Feature

The Secret Agent, Brazil
It Was Just an Accident, France
Sentimental Value, Norway
Sirāt, Spain
The Voice of Hind Rajab, Tunisia

Should Win:

I haven’t seen Hind Rajab or Sirat yet, but The Secret Agent is my pick.

Will Win:

Shot in the dark here, but It Was Just An Accident. The Iranian dissident movie seems like the safest, politically.

Casting

Hamnet, Nina Gold
Marty Supreme, Jennifer Venditti
One Battle After Another, Cassandra Kulukundis
The Secret Agent, Gabriel Domingues
Sinners, Francine Maisler

Should Win:

I love that this is a category now (its first year). My pick? Marty Supreme! Why is no one saying this? Come on, they cast Mr. Wonderful from Shark Tank, Penn Jillette, and the Golden-Voiced Hobo! You never see casting as inspired as in a Safdie movie. Josh Safdie, Tim & Eric, Nathan Fielder, and Tim Robinson are my Mount Rushmore of casting-as-an-artform.

Will Win:

Everyone is saying Sinners. Still not quite as inspired as Marty Supreme, in my mind, but hard to deny Sinners on its own merits.

Writing (Adapted Screenplay)

Bugonia, screenplay by Will Tracy
Frankenstein, written for the screen by Guillermo del Toro
Hamnet, screenplay by Chloé Zhao and Maggie O’Farrell
One Battle After Another, written by Paul Thomas Anderson
Train Dreams, screenplay by Clint Bentley & Greg Kwedar

Should Win:

One Battle After Another.

Will Win:

Hamnet? I honestly have no idea here.

Headscratchers:

I can grant that Frankenstein looked gorgeous and the acting was solid, but come on, the screenplay was dogshit.

Writing (Original Screenplay)

Blue Moon, written by Robert Kaplow
It Was Just an Accident, written by Jafar Panahi; script collaborators: Nader Saïvar, Shadmehr Rastin, Mehdi Mahmoudian
Marty Supreme, written by Ronald Bronstein and Josh Safdie
Sentimental Value, written by Eskil Vogt, Joachim Trier
Sinners, written by Ryan Coogler

Should Win:

Sinners.

Will Win:

Sinners.

Production Design

Frankenstein
Hamnet
Marty Supreme
One Battle After Another
Sinners

Original Score

Bugonia, Jerskin Fendrix
Frankenstein, Alexandre Desplat
Hamnet, Max Richter
One Battle after Another, Jonny Greenwood
Sinners, Ludwig Goransson

No Hans Zimmer this year, thank God! (Oh-ver-rate-ed *clap clap, clap-clap-clap *). My vote is One Battle After Another, but only because I’m remembering the complementary melodies bit in the finale, and I’m not even sure that counts as a score.

Original Song

“Dear Me” from Diane Warren: Relentless; music and lyric by Diane Warren
“Golden” from KPop Demon Hunters; music and lyric by EJAE, Mark Sonnenblick, Joong Gyu Kwak, Yu Han Lee, Hee Dong Nam, Jeong Hoon Seon and Teddy Park
“I Lied to You” from Sinners; music and lyric by Raphael Saadiq and Ludwig Goransson
“Sweet Dreams of Joy” from Viva Verdi!; music and lyric by Nicholas Pike
“Train Dreams” from Train Dreams; music by Nick Cave and Bryce Dessner; lyric by Nick Cave

Editing

F1
Marty Supreme
One Battle After Another
Sentimental Value
Sinners

Documentary short

All the Empty Rooms
Armed Only With a Camera: The Life and Death of Brent Renaud
Children No More: Were and Are Gone
The Devil Is Busy
Perfectly a Strangeness

Costume Design

Avatar: Fire and Ash
Frankenstein
Hamnet
Marty Supreme
Sinners

Makeup and Hairstyling

Frankenstein, Mike Hill, Jordan Samuel and Cliona Furey
Kokuho, Kyoko Toyokawa, Naomi Hibino and Tadashi Nishimatsu
Sinners, Ken Diaz, Mike Fontaine and Shunika Terry
The Smashing Machine, Kazu Hiro, Glen Griffin and Bjoern Rehbein
The Ugly Stepsister, Thomas Foldberg and Anne Cathrine Sauerberg

It’s pretty surprising that this was the only nomination for The Smashing Machine, given how strong the Rock Oscar buzz was before it came out. Possibly everyone learned, as I did after I did my best to write the definitive history of the original doc, that the non-freaks out there care a lot less about early MMA than MMA sickos like me do. And possibly The Rock was just a victim of it being a particularly strong year (I also thought Emily Blunt was great). I can’t feel too sad for him though, since the film not mentioning steroids even once seems like a factor in its lackluster reception, and I have to imagine that was The Rock’s own stipulation. Merely acknowledging (even in the context of fiction!) what we can all see with our own eyes seems like a low bar for vulnerability.

Live-Action Short

Butcher’s Stain
A Friend of Dorothy
Jane Austen’s Period Drama
The Singers
Two People Exchanging Saliva

Sound

F1
Frankenstein
One Battle After Another
Sinners
Sirāt

Visual Effects

Avatar: Fire and Ash
F1
Jurassic World Rebirth
The Lost Bus
Sinners

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